What is a "Polycrisis" and Why You Should Care About It

The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently released its “Global Risks Report 2023”, warning that eroding geopolitical cooperation will contribute to a potential "polycrisis" of interrelated environmental, geopolitical, and socioeconomic risks relating to the supply of and demand for natural resources. The term "polycrisis" was popularized by historian Adam Tooze and has become a buzzword in the world of business and finance. But what exactly is a "polycrisis" and why should you care about it?

A "Polycrisis" is a concatenation of shocks that generate crises that trigger crises in other systems, making the combined effect far worse than the sum of its parts. The notion of a "polycrisis" is based on the idea that the world is becoming increasingly interconnected and complex, making it vulnerable to an interconnected, complex global catastrophe.

Here are three key points to understand the "Polycrisis" concept:

It's a legitimate concern but not a perfect theory

    The concept of a "polycrisis" is real, but it doesn't mean that the logic behind it is ironclad. Some of the warnings about a "polycrisis" echo 1970s concerns about resource depletion combined with an increasing population and a lot of it can be reduced to concerns about climate change. While the future will not be crisis-free, the notion of a "polycrisis" might do more harm than good in attempting to get a grip on the systemic risks that threaten humanity.

It's not a new idea but a reinvention of a classic theory

    The origins of "polycrisis" can be traced back to the 1999 book "Homeland Earth: A Manifesto for the New Millennium" by French complexity theorists Edgar Morin and Anne Brigitte Kern. The term has been used by various academics and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to characterize the cluster of negative shocks triggered by the 2008 financial crisis. The "polycrisis" concept is essentially a reinvention of the classic theory of a global catastrophe with a fancy new name.

It's a way to understand the interconnectedness of risks

    The "polycrisis" concept requires some understanding of how complex systems work. Complex systems, such as Earth's ecosystem, are tightly wound and complex, and experts can't be entirely sure how they will respond to stresses and shocks. The "polycrisis" concept argues that it's not just components within a single system that are interconnected, but the systems themselves, such as health, geopolitics, and the environment, are increasingly interconnected and can trigger a global catastrophe.

    The "polycrisis" concept is a way to understand the interconnectedness of risks and the potential for a global catastrophe. While the idea is not perfect and has been around for decades, it's important to be aware of it and the systemic risks that threaten humanity. 

    The future may not be crisis-free, but by understanding the "polycrisis" concept, we can better prepare for and mitigate the risks that lie ahead.